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A bettor made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of Nicolás Maduro shortly prior to it was made public, raising questions about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the US operation.

Changing Odds in Forecasts

Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the close of the month surged in the period preceding President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that Maduro had been taken into custody.

A particular user, which registered on the site recently and made four bets, all on the Venezuelan situation, earned over $436,000 from a modest bet of over $32,000.

The identity is unknown. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification.

Probability Spikes Before News Break

Platform data shows that users put the odds of a political change at just under 7% in the midday period of the Friday before the event.

But the market's assessment had increased to over 10% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the morning of January 3rd, pointing to a sharp shift in betting activity right before the official statement was made.

"This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a transaction based on confidential knowledge," stated a financial reform advocate.

A handful of other platform users also profited large payouts from predicting the capture.

Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies

Politicians are beginning to pay attention.

A new rule introduced on the start of the week seeks to ban public officials from participating on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a market.

Market Background

Prediction markets have surged in popularity in recent years, with users able to bet on everything from elections to current affairs.

Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the previous administration. But it has received a warmer welcome during the present political climate.

Insider trading is a crime in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the forecasting space.

An official representative for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."